The Official Brexit Thread - The Transition Period.

[mac11irl]

The vast majority of people in RoI dont actually care or understand much about what happens with Brexit, so its unlikely to affect peoples vote. If it does, Leo is likely to gain having been seen as influential in getting a deal sorted re backstop etc.

 

As to what will happen vote wise... 

The Shinners and PBP / AAA whatever they are today wont gain much as they are use populist shoutiness on one issue (water charges last time, now abolished and our water infrastructure is crumbling as a direct result) to get votes, but dont actually do anything... likely to use housing crisis this time around, with some token environmentalism to try and get some extra votes. None of them want to be incharge, as its easier shout about whats wrong rather than actually fix it - prime case Shane Ross Indendant TD spent years bitching about public transport. Was put in charge of it by FG to get the Ind Alliance on side. He has dine absolutely nothing for public trnasport, but spends plenty time giving out about other ministers' portfolio failures..

 

So, its a FF/FG thrash out as usual. FF through the country into austerity by not effectively managing the Tiger years and floundering to fix it. FG got the country back on track but they have also had plenty screw ups that people are getting agitated about - ie the HSE and hospital overcrowding being a bag of ****e money pit that has no ability to run itself effectively.

 

So, trust me, theres enough national and local issues to be fought over that brexit is faaaaaarr down the list of priorities for average Joe Voter..

[Ootohere]

Pretty much like the UK then, many not got a clue about Brexit or care and will not notice any difference if they do not travel overseas.

[Ootohere]

'Big Ben'.

The ERG & the Vote Leave Campaign Board, MP's and committee can easily put their hands in their pockets and ensure there is a bong.   As it is the Bong must be shared around regularly.

 

The UK politicians like this are really so up their own arses.

 

 

 

Edited 15 January, 2020 by Roottootemblowinootsoot

[CWARD]

13 hours ago, Lee01 said:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/european-economic-forecast-summer-2019_en

 

https://www.businessinsider.de/international/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1/?r=US&IR=T

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/14/total-to-move-financial-hub-from-london-to-paris-after-brexit

We've not even left yet. You think things will improve?
 

 

Awww bless your little cotton socks.

 

Investment in Britain's tech sector jumped 44% in 2019 - report

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Investment in Britain’s tech sector surged 44% to a record $13.2 billion pounds in 2019, accounting for a third of all European funding and exceeding the total in France and Germany combined, the UK government’s Digital Economy Council said on Wednesday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-technology-funding/investment-in-britains-tech-sector-jumped-44-in-2019-report-idUKKBN1ZE003

 

[cheezemonkhai]

From the guardian article:

 

”Patrick Pouyanné announced plans for Total to move its central treasury, including between 60 and 70 jobs, back to the “heart of Europe’s economic and financial system” in Paris by the end of 2020.”

 

PMSL - Talk about a desperate pitch to take over from London as a EU hub.

 

Everyone knows Dublin, Paris, Frankfurt and others have been trying to take over from London for finance for years and failing. When Brexit got voted they wet themselves with excitement as they thought it would happen this time.

 

They are not and Paris certainly isn’t as described in that quote. Who would move their business there with French employment laws when flexibility is key to finance?

 

[lol-lol]

20 hours ago, moley said:

Do you have any facts and figures to support those statements? 

 

So a part from the 0.3% downturn in the last GDP figures it is the assessment of the effect of BREXIT that lead me to agree with the impact assessment which are based on  facts since the BREXIT vote and the upcoming costs... 

 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/the-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-firms.pdf

 

..........First, the UK’s decision to leave the EU has generated a high, broad and persistent increase in uncertainty. Figure 1 plots our Brexit Uncertainty Index (BUI), which shows the share of firms reporting that Brexit was in their top three drivers of uncertainty. This demonstrates that even three years after the June 2016 vote firms reported extremely high levels of Brexit uncertainty – more than half of firms reported Brexit being one of their top three sources of uncertainty. The uncertainties surrounding Brexit are also complex – for example, around what the UK’s eventual relationship with the EU will look like and how this will affect market access, the supply of migrant labour and the UK’s product regulations. There is also uncertainty around how the UK will transition to that new post-Brexit position, how the relationship will look at different points in time and what each of these will mean for the prospects of individual businesses.

 

Second, anticipation of Brexit has substantially reduced UK investment, cutting this by around 11%, relative to what would have otherwise happened. Interestingly, this fall in investment took three years to fully materialize, with these investment effects building gradually. In contrast, forecasts made in the aftermath of the referendum predicted that investment growth would fall sharply within the first year after the Brexit vote and then recover. This delay suggests firms may not respond as rapidly to large shocks that cause persistent uncertainty rather than short-term uncertainty, possibly because uncertainty leads firms to act cautiously, as discussed, for example, in Guiso and Parigi (1999) and Bloom, Bond and Van Reenen (2007).

 

Finally, we estimate that the Brexit process has reduced the level of UK productivity by between 2% and 5% over the three years since the referendum........

 

[CWARD]

@lol-lol you may want to find a more current report rather than one that was prior to the election and the certainty that we are now leaving the EU instead of one that was written after three years of parliament stagnation over Brexit. 
 

Yet again you have pasted information without context so please try and provide Moley with the links to back up your claims. 

Edited 15 January, 2020 by CWARD

[Wet Kipper]

deleted as I didn't think it had posted the first time, and re-posted with a different tone

Edited 15 January, 2020 by Wet Kipper

[Wet Kipper]

13 hours ago, shyVRS245 said:

Something to ponder which struck me whilst listening to the wonderful German rock band the Scorpions was their song "Wind of Change" written following the USSR pulling out of East Germany after the Wall came down in 1989. The Russian's were like the EU not helping the East develop as quickly as West Germany. Without the interference from the Russian's United Germany has prospered over the last 30 years. Imagine how good our economy might be in 2050 without the EU sticking it's unelected oar in?

 

Despite the Reunification, things aren't all rosy in the former East. 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/06/berlin-wall-germany-unification-far-right

 

Quote

...there remained a lot of economic problems in the east, despite the overall prosperity of Germany. Today, GDP per capita in the east is around 20% lower than in the west; wages and salaries are 15% lower. Not a single major corporation has its headquarters in the east.

 

I'm not sure you can relate prosperity in Germany (no Russian involvement in the East, but with Full EU involvement)  with prosperity in the UK being out of the EU

 

 

Edited 15 January, 2020 by Wet Kipper
same post twice in one entry

[lol-lol]

14 minutes ago, CWARD said:

@lol-lol you may want to find a more current report rather than one that was prior to the election and the certainty that we are now leaving the EU instead of one that was written after three years of parliament stagnation over Brexit. 
 

Yet again you have pasted information without context so please try and provide Moley with the links to back up your claims. 

 

Like this one ?   https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8534

 

 

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Statistics

Published Friday, December 20, 2019

This note defines FDI and looks at recent trends in UK and world FDI

Jump to full report >>

Summary

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is defined as investment in an enterprise operating in a foreign economy, where the purpose is to have an "effective voice" in the management of the enterprise. In FDI statistics, an "effective voice" is owning 10% or more of a company; any investment below this is counted as ‘portfolio’ investment and not included in FDI statistics.

FDI can be either inward or outward:

• Inward FDI measures investments made in a country from another country.
• Outward FDI measures investments made by domestic companies in a foreign economy.

FDI statistics measure two different concepts – flows and stocks:

• Flows measure annual levels of investment on a net basis.
• Stocks record the total book value of all existing FDI, inward or outward.

FDI in the UK

In 2018:

• The value of foreign direct investment into the UK, i.e. inward flows, into the UK were worth £49.4 billion, down from £80.6 billion in 2017.

 

 

[StevesTruck]

Well you carted out some GDP figures and pasted them on here without either stating their relevance, or comparing them to the UK's forecast.

 

How about you prove to us there's something going on above the shoulders and talk us through what it means?

 

 

[moley]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

So a part from the 0.3% downturn in the last GDP figures it is the assessment of the effect of BREXIT that lead me to agree with the impact assessment which are based on  facts since the BREXIT vote and the upcoming costs... 

Could you post a list of all of the companies you said are leaving the UK due to Brexit? 

[gadgetman]

2 hours ago, Roottootemblowinootsoot said:

'Big Ben'.

The ERG & the Vote Leave Campaign Board, MP's and committee can easily put their hands in their pockets and ensure there is a bong.   As it is the Bong must be shared around regularly.

 

The UK politicians like this are really so up their own arses.

 

 

 

 

 

Can't Francois bash one out to a recording of the bongs instead?

[Ootohere]

The UK is cheap and unloved.  Nobody loves us and everyone hates us,  just the time for those to buy into the UK.

http://thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-7814841/What-2020-bring-investors-UK-remains-unloved-Brexit-era.html

 

[CWARD]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

Like this one ?   https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-8534

 

 

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Statistics

Published Friday, December 20, 2019

This note defines FDI and looks at recent trends in UK and world FDI

Jump to full report >>

Summary

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is defined as investment in an enterprise operating in a foreign economy, where the purpose is to have an "effective voice" in the management of the enterprise. In FDI statistics, an "effective voice" is owning 10% or more of a company; any investment below this is counted as ‘portfolio’ investment and not included in FDI statistics.

FDI can be either inward or outward:

• Inward FDI measures investments made in a country from another country.
• Outward FDI measures investments made by domestic companies in a foreign economy.

FDI statistics measure two different concepts – flows and stocks:

• Flows measure annual levels of investment on a net basis.
• Stocks record the total book value of all existing FDI, inward or outward.

FDI in the UK

In 2018:

• The value of foreign direct investment into the UK, i.e. inward flows, into the UK were worth £49.4 billion, down from £80.6 billion in 2017.

 

 

Nope, not like these. You were asked to provide facts and links to your GDP figures and those leaving, not left, the U.K. which you’ve posted everything but as usual as you just copy and paste without understanding the figures you’re providing. Again for someone that claims to be in your position this is surprising. 

Edited 15 January, 2020 by CWARD

[CWARD]

36 minutes ago, gadgetman said:

 

 

Can't Francois bash one out to a recording of the bongs instead?

Whatever floats your boat, you strange boy. 

[shyVRS245]

The doom and gloom brigade mentioned the 2.4% drop in UK new car sales in 2019 compared to 2018 but as with all statistics it is best to take a step back and look at the figures in more detail. In 2018 over 2.3 million new cars were purchased in the UK and guess what in 2019 over 2.3 million new cars found homes. However breaking down the figures shows 1.5 million were petrol models, 600,000 were diesel (25%), 200,000 hybrids and 40,000 pure electric vehicles. Car dealerships are not closing and employees are not being laid off. Despite the huge uncertainty for the economy in 2019 this was a very encouraging result.

[Aspman]

2 minutes ago, shyVRS245 said:

 Car dealerships are not closing and employees are not being laid off. Despite the huge uncertainty for the economy in 2019 this was a very encouraging result.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/business/pendragon-slashes-300-jobs-car-dealerships-firm-swings-to-loss-633983

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-51119765

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/vauxhall-dealerships-close-falling-uk-car-sales-industry-opel-a8308296.html

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/motors/2019/06/24/thirty-uk-honda-dealerships-to-disappear-over-the-next-three-years/

 

Erm....

 

Not everything is Brexit related certainly. A lot of this would happen anyway. People are probably (rightly) sick of many dealerships attitudes and if you're buying a boring basic A2B box you might as well buy it like any other white good online. No point in spending half a day with an irritating salesman trying to upsell you £2k of extras on a Vx Astra when you really don't care.

[shyVRS245]

4 minutes ago, Aspman said:

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/business/pendragon-slashes-300-jobs-car-dealerships-firm-swings-to-loss-633983

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-51119765

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/vauxhall-dealerships-close-falling-uk-car-sales-industry-opel-a8308296.html

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/motors/2019/06/24/thirty-uk-honda-dealerships-to-disappear-over-the-next-three-years/

 

Erm....

 

Not everything is Brexit related certainly. A lot of this would happen anyway. People are probably (rightly) sick of many dealerships attitudes and if you're buying a boring basic A2B box you might as well buy it like any other white good online. No point in spending half a day with an irritating salesman trying to upsell you £2k of extras on a Vx Astra when you really don't care.

The big 5 winners were Ford and Volkswagen with over 200,000 sales each, BMW and Mercedes with over 170,000 each and Vauxhall with 160,000 sales. Perhaps Pendragon were trying to shift Infiniti (Posh Nissan's) less than 365 sold in the whole of the UK or Chevrolet barely one car a week during 2019 sold?

[@Lee]

32 minutes ago, shyVRS245 said:

 Car dealerships are not closing and employees are not being laid off. Despite the huge uncertainty for the economy in 2019 this was a very encouraging result.

Erm #2 
From yesterday;

Quote

One worker from the Island, who did not want to be named, said: "It was an absolutely devastating day for us all. It's more than 300 jobs." <> "The company has decided to move our work to the Midlands into other plants as they have more plants up there. They say our plant is not performing, mainly due to Brexit.

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/sittingbourne/news/up-to-300-job-at-risk-as-factory-closes-220084/?fbclid=IwAR1zynVddvz69_WNayhdoBcyJCbQsrCh2qB6RgEA5UCxVByMtXRtMMRgPd8

And also from yesterday; 
 

Quote

Workers at BCS Automotive Interface Solutions, located on Heasandford Industrial Estate next to Boohoo, were placed on 45 days' notice yesterday.

Staff said while they had been expecting an announcement regards the closure they did not expect it to come so soon.

It is believed approximately 100 workers are employed on site.

https://www.burnleyexpress.net/news/severe-job-losses-expected-as-burnley-firm-announces-factory-closure-1-10199714

I believe ZF make gearboxes and components for BMW amongst others.

Like Aspman said, not all Brexit related but it's a factor. There's a hell of a lot of closures happening in the UK since 2016 though.
Even Aston Martin are feeling it. Do they make a diesel DB?
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/aston-martin-issues-profit-warning-after-very-disappointing-year-084742456.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJuMf2D_N7z0D78Lyw6AhrfT7do0_oaUwtt8J7cDVy2SS9kfHj_3vueRiwaNR50P81ZRUtMjyMD2Tr5vhwlk9K0FsaxNNS2aGYj16JZHEEcG0D8EwZZMOHWTap4Fj_gVFDjhAV9wfYmRV4_6cpEaxPpQtwUIJC-vZlFCXDJ8FLC6

[Paul007]

OT but shouldn't the title read "sew" rather than something to do with a cow ?

[@Lee]

1 minute ago, Paul007 said:

OT but shouldn't the title read "sew" rather than something to do with a cow ?

Nope. The term is 'you reap what you sow'. You sow seeds to harvest and reap the crops.  

[Ootohere]

So the Scottish Armoured car manufacturer Penman lays off workers again. (Maker of Armoured vehicles in Scotland that is.)

This should be in the Administration thread i know but it is vehicle sales related....

 

?

Something to do with a cow?    Pig!

Edited 15 January, 2020 by Roottootemblowinootsoot

[CWARD]

1 hour ago, Aspman said:

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/business/pendragon-slashes-300-jobs-car-dealerships-firm-swings-to-loss-633983

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-51119765

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/vauxhall-dealerships-close-falling-uk-car-sales-industry-opel-a8308296.html

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/motors/2019/06/24/thirty-uk-honda-dealerships-to-disappear-over-the-next-three-years/

 

Erm....

 

Not everything is Brexit related certainly. A lot of this would happen anyway. People are probably (rightly) sick of many dealerships attitudes and if you're buying a boring basic A2B box you might as well buy it like any other white good online. No point in spending half a day with an irritating salesman trying to upsell you £2k of extras on a Vx Astra when you really don't care.

 

Car sales decline is anything but Brexit related as Europe has had a flat year in car sales and manufacturers have made massive job losses as they try to manage the fallout of the VAG emissions scandal which has affected all manufacturers as diesel is now evil and suffering from competition from EV manufacturers. Manufacturers are merging reducing jobs and development costs.

 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-17/european-car-sales-heading-for-flat-year-despite-november-boost

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-03/carmakers-shedding-80-000-jobs-as-electric-era-upends-industry

 

Of course we can just blame Brexit for everything instead as it's easier, even when manufacturers relocate in the same country

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, Aspman said:

Not everything is Brexit related certainly. A lot of this would happen anyway.

8 minutes ago, CWARD said:

Of course we can just blame Brexit for everything instead as it's easier, even when manufacturers relocate in the same country

 

1 hour ago, Lee01 said:

Like Aspman said, not all Brexit related but it's a factor. There's a hell of a lot of closures happening in the UK since 2016 though.

 

He didn't and nor did I