The Official Brexit Thread - The Transition Period.

[@Lee]

The UK deals with many countries around the world. Lots of our trade deals are reliant on us being in the EU who negotiated those deals on the UKs behalf.
When we leave the EU 'all treaties cease to apply'.
 

Quote

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/577971/EPRS_BRI(2016)577971_EN.pdf

 

Quote

Trade agreements that the UK is part of as an EU member state will no longer apply if there’s a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries-in-a-no-deal-brexit

 

Quote

The European Union (EU) has about 40 free trade deals, covering more than 70 countries. That means the UK, as a member of the EU, can currently trade with countries like Canada without having to pay taxes (tariffs) on most goods.

If the UK leaves the EU with no deal, it would automatically lose tariff-free access to these markets and it would have to trade under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

To avoid this scenario, the UK government is in the process of rolling over the EU's existing free trade deals with other countries.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47213842

It would have been easily overlooked if you hadn't been watching the news for the past three-and-a-half years.

[Ootohere]

Boris has the boys from the hood he is so chummy with, the Canadian & French dudes. 

What a shame that the Big Orange from the USA probably has little dolls of them sticks pins into.

 

Nigel Farage might prove to be a great Trade Ambassador for the UK.

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, Skoda_newby said:

 

Eh? The only country on WTO rules? Do we not already deal with China, the US, Australia, South America, Canada?

So, with respect to the EU, it means that we must enter negotiations with them for a trade deal. But with others, we already have a deal, no?

 

We deal with China and the US on WTO rules plus, as EU members, we have numerous Anti-Dumping and other controls on their imports such as Surveillance licences to control floods of imports.

 

Canada and South America have trade deal with the EU which will die when the UK full leave the EU as will the other 40 or so deals.  Some South American countries have a trade deal rollover.

 

The UK is in the process of recruiting thousands of new civil servants and consultants to replace these functions previously carried out by Brussels EU civil servants.

 

The UK will also need a two pronged customs system, one for UK mainland and one for the six countries of north Ireland to collect the EU customs duties for goods going in to Belfast and then most of the duties collected will be handed over the EU.  The collection will be subject to EU Audit. 

 

Canada, China, USA Trade deals with UK to be done, usually take several years to do such deals to included Goods and Services.

Current list of UK deals, wow !   https://www.gov.uk/guidance/uk-trade-agreements-with-non-eu-countries-in-a-no-deal-brexit

• Andean countries
• CARIFORUM trade bloc
• Central America
• Chile
• Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) trade bloc 
• Faroe Islands
• Georgia
• Iceland and Norway
• Israel
• Jordan
• Kosovo
• Lebanon
• Liechtenstein
• Morocco
• Pacific states
• Palestinian Authority
• Southern Africa Customs Union and Mozambique (SACUM) trade bloc
• South Korea
• Switzerland
• Tunisia

 

 

 

  

Edited 17 December, 2019 by lol-lol

[gadgetman]

1 hour ago, Skoda_newby said:

Eh? The only country on WTO rules?

Yes we would be the obnly country dealing solely on WTO. 

 

The 'deals' listed above are intentions only as we cannot legally sign new deals until we are no longer a member. 

 

Those countries could seek to ammend or remove those deals at any time 

[Skoda_newby]

Just now, gadgetman said:

Yes we would be the obnly country dealing solely on WTO. 

 

The 'deals' listed above are intentions only as we cannot legally sign new deals until we are no longer a member. 

 

Those countries could seek to ammend or remove those deals at any time 

 

The obnly country???

 

Hee hee.

 

Anyway, that's how it is NOW. I would dare say there will be a year's planning for that NOT to happen.

[gadgetman]

36 minutes ago, Skoda_newby said:

 

The obnly country???

 

Hee hee.

 

Anyway, that's how it is NOW. I would dare say there will be a year's planning for that NOT to happen.

The EU are not fast negotiators. The rushed timetable could give the EU the upper hand in any negotiations. 

 

 

Meanwhile those gains to the pound you championed @shyVRS245.....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50821583

[@Lee]

I'm trying to think of what the English for 'Schadenfreude' is...

 

[Guest BigJase88]

Project fear mk2

 

v. scared

[shyVRS245]

27 minutes ago, gadgetman said:

The EU are not fast negotiators. The rushed timetable could give the EU the upper hand in any negotiations. 

 

 

Meanwhile those gains to the pound you championed @shyVRS245.....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50821583

The EU are sending us an updated pamphlet which starts on 31/01/2020 with 4 million words in it. I for one won't be reading it and I doubt whether you will either. They do like a bit of RED TAPE and tree felling those Europeans.

18 minutes ago, BigJase88 said:

Project fear mk2

 

v. scared

Even more scared than you promise.

[Guest BigJase88]

54 minutes ago, shyVRS245 said:

The EU are sending us an updated pamphlet which starts on 31/01/2020 with 4 million words in it. I for one won't be reading it and I doubt whether you will either. They do like a bit of RED TAPE and tree felling those Europeans.

Even more scared than you promise.

After a couple of days of licking the wounds the team of doom and gloom appear to be back 🙄

 

oh well the peace was nice while it lasted

[Skoda_newby]

1 hour ago, gadgetman said:

The EU are not fast negotiators. The rushed timetable could give the EU the upper hand in any negotiations. 

 

 

Meanwhile those gains to the pound you championed @shyVRS245.....

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50821583

 

Again... eh? The rushed timetable gives the EU the upper hand? They will only gain by agreeing to negotiate. If they fail, we'll negotiate trade deals without them. Just look back at all the sabre rattling that's been going on the past few years from them and how now, they're trying to work out where the money is going to come from. Germany's seen better economic times, and they're also mumbling about the space budget, whilst for example, the EDF is facing more cuts:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/faced-with-defence-budget-threats-eu-eyes-new-money-sources/

[Skoda_newby]

11 hours ago, Skoda_newby said:

 

Again... eh? The rushed timetable gives the EU the upper hand? They will only gain by agreeing to negotiate. If they fail, we'll negotiate trade deals without them. Just look back at all the sabre rattling that's been going on the past few years from them and how now, they're trying to work out where the money is going to come from. Germany's seen better economic times, and they're also mumbling about the space budget, whilst for example, the EDF is facing more cuts:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/global-europe/news/faced-with-defence-budget-threats-eu-eyes-new-money-sources/

 

Well, OK, you laugh again

,

and it seems you're convinced in your own minds that the EU is the crowned glory of the Universe. Certainly, without the EU, Britain will fail.

It did before it joined, right? Er no....

Will it fail after it's left? Er... no...

 

So, enjoy your chuckles. You lost the bet on whether Boris will get in, we will be out on the 31st January, and a new bill WILL be passed by this Friday that will bring into law, any extension.

Lot's of chuckles from me too, just for a different reason than you.

[Skoda_newby]

Funny going back in time. I know a lot of people don't like her, but so much rings true today, as it did in 2016:

 

 

And over 40 years ago..

 

 

[paulkennedy]

Of course there's always the possibility that Boris will moderate his attitude now that his real goal of becoming Prime Minister has been achieved. Brexit is secondary to his lust for power.

[gadgetman]

58 minutes ago, Skoda_newby said:

Funny going back in time. I know a lot of people don't like her, but so much rings true today, as it did in 2016:

 

 

And over 40 years ago..

 

 

The world has moved on greatly from 40 years ago and is more interconnected financially and commercially than it was then. 

 

 

54 minutes ago, paulkennedy said:

Of course there's always the possibility that Boris will moderate his attitude now that his real goal of becoming Prime Minister has been achieved. Brexit is secondary to his lust for power.

 

Exactly. Boris track record as Mayor should have been a warning as to what to expect from this new government. 

[Skoda_newby]

As much as I don't really have much time for Blair, I couldn't have said this better:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50829352

 

 

53 minutes ago, gadgetman said:

"The world has moved on greatly from 40 years ago"

 

Yes, we're escaping the EU.

Edited 18 December, 2019 by Skoda_newby

[Skoda_newby]

Oooh, my sides.... stop it!!

 

 

[lol-lol]

7 minutes ago, Skoda_newby said:

Oooh, my sides.... stop it!!

 

 

 

I think the logic is that 44% of UK trade is with the EU but only 6% of EU trade is with the UK

[Aspman]

1 hour ago, Skoda_newby said:

As much as I don't really have much time for Blair, I couldn't have said this better:

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50829352

 

 

 

Yes, we're escaping the EU.

 

Aye doesn't matter if you hate Blair or not he won 3 elections on the trot.

 

To paraphrase a few articles I've read (in the left wing press btw):

Labour is still in the denial stage of grief. Corbyn says he "won the argument". No. No you didn't. You lost massively. If you'd won the argument you'd be moving into #10. You and your policies and your strategy were rejected massively and decisively even by your own die hard supporters.

 

To stand and effectively say that despite having the worst election results in the best part of a century that is was a glorious moral victory or that you fought the good fight is quite frankly feckin mental.

 

A rational organisation would be looking at that result and thinking "we really screwed that up, pretty much everyone hates everything we did, we should really do something very different very soon". And not "well everyone hates us but we're not in this to be popular who cares if we win an election or not?".

 

Edited 18 December, 2019 by Aspman

[CWARD]

23 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

I think the logic is that 44% of UK trade is with the EU but only 6% of EU trade is with the UK

 

Not as straight forward as comparing 27 countries combined trade with one country. Germany GDP is made up of nearly 3% of exports to the UK, France similar so the EU as whole doesn't get the same hit as the individual countries and I can't imagine for one moment these countries will allow the EU to weaken their markets and GDP, especially so close to recession again.

 

Looking at trading world wide the picture changes again

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/836787/190924_UK_trade_in_numbers_full_web_version_final.pdf

[Skoda_newby]

26 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

I think the logic is that 44% of UK trade is with the EU but only 6% of EU trade is with the UK

 

I get it now, yes. So, they won't want to buy any of our meat, fish, vegetables etc. anymore. And pretty much anything that the EU makes or grows can be bought elsewhere. Not ideal, but it can happen if it needs to. We won't starve,

 

The EU will still want to sell their stuff to us. These are old arguments, but do you really think the BMWs, VWs and Benzes of the world will happily stop selling to us? That they really don't need our money anyway?

 

The Danes are already contesting "their right" to fish in our waters. Puh-lease....

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/18/denmark-to-contest-uk-efforts-to-take-back-control-of-fisheries

[Ootohere]

EU Countries companies want to sell to the UK,components,  products, foods / drinks and just parts or ingredients of stuff that will then be exported globally.

So the UK businesses need money to buy the products that others want to sell.

 

The population need money to buy or lease some of the most expensive imports from the EU, so no point the UK being screwed into the ground.

 

Cutting off their nose to spite their face is the Unions / Labour Party's default position.  But Labour are not getting the purse strings.

Well not the countries, there will still be councils / local authorities Labour controlled.

The Unions will carry on as usual, representing members, even ones they cause to be unemployed.

 

As to the EU Country with a border with the United Kingdom and that uses the UK as a Land Bridge for EU goods from Continental Europe to 

the EU / Irish Republic, that is a kettle of fish or still a can of worms.

 

As to those in the Great Britain using the RoI to get live animals inhumanly to Continental Europe via Northern Ireland or those from NI doing it, 

that will likely still be a cattle truck of Sh!t to hit the fan.

Edited 18 December, 2019 by Roottootemoot

[moley]

1 hour ago, gadgetman said:

Exactly. Boris track record as Mayor should have been a warning as to what to expect from this new government. 

What was Boris's track record as Mayor of London?  Not living there I didn't take a lot of notice as to what he did, apart from getting rid of the bendy buses. 

[paulkennedy]

Boris "borrowed" a lot of votes in the north of England same as Trump borrowed a lot of votes in the rust belt states of America. Boris is cleverer than Trump he knows that post Brexit the people will expect more than rhetoric in return, a lesson Trump has to yet learn apparently.

Labour will regroup, soon Corbyn will soon be a memory best forgotten, like the drunken fumble with your mates mother.  Boris may have campaigned in poetry but  he will govern in prose.

[gadgetman]

1 hour ago, moley said:

What was Boris's track record as Mayor of London?  Not living there I didn't take a lot of notice as to what he did, apart from getting rid of the bendy buses. 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-johnson-record-factbox/factbox-incoming-pm-johnsons-record-as-london-mayor-idUKKCN1UI1TV

 

Ref the routemasters, TFL had to get them converted from hybrid to 100%  diesel and now there are further costs to make them front door only after previous costs to fix air-conditioning and non opening windows. The cost for this on top of the cost of each bus is pretty eye watering. Isn't the manufacturer now bust as well? 

 

Previously estimates for his failed vanity projects was just under £1bn

Edited 18 December, 2019 by gadgetman