The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Topic.

[cheezemonkhai]

1 hour ago, Lady Elanore said:

It's the thing that concerns me most, I still haven't heard what the exit strategy will be. As far as I can tell they do not have one! 

it depends on how bad things get.  Any exit is a trade off on restriction vs deaths.

 

valid options could include:

 

If the peak goes low, then light lifting for a few weeks, then on/off and squash the peak.

 

eff it they’re all moaning. Come out get infected and die, but then it’s all over with ASAP, but with lots of death.

 

keep us in until they have a vaccine.

 

Non particularly great sounding right now.

 

 

Edited 7 April, 2020 by cheezemonkhai

[Lady Elanore]

I can't see the wait for a vaccine route being taken. The cost in lives due to an apocalyptic recession would be as bad as an unchecked virus probably. But the stop start, although at first seems sensible, is surely flawed in the extreme as it will cause chaos to reported figures of infection and the delay that comes with a slowly following climb in deaths again. 

 

Personally I feel confident the Government has looked at all options, but are panicking because what ever they do next will cause enormous suffering, possibly greater than we see now, in the long run. But I am the sort of person that would like to know in advance. I like plans.

[skomaz]

1 hour ago, Lady Elanore said:

I'm not after dates or specific relaxations of the lockdown, rather I'd like to know if they intend people returning to work if say, certain hygiene rules are in place, or we will be allowed to meet in small groups. Perhaps we could visit immediate family. But as yet I have heard absolutely zero on what is expected first. After all they may not know the 'when' of the relaxations, but what concerns me is I do not believe they have a 'what' scenario in place yet. Numbers of infections and deaths will eventually go down, but then what? I would like to know as it will give me hope and help sustain me through this crisis. Personally the Government has given me diddley squat (not meant as a personal attack on the Tory party).  

 

Personally i think its just too early for anyone, including the government, to make a call on that yet.  I would imagine they wil try and learn from what happens elsewhere, such as China / Wuhan and will decide then.  In the menatime i thnk they will hold off saying anything as whatever they say now is liable to change based on what happens elsewhere.

[Lady Elanore]

That's the sort of thing that might worry me. lets see what everyone else does smacks of 'we don't know what to do for the best'. I don't doubt they are trying and that they are being cautious, I just hoped they would have been decisive and our scientists would have given them some cold hard facts and said which way they should go. I can guarantee this issue of 'no announced exit strategy' will become more and more pressing with time. People will start to become impatient and probably quite angry, or even worse. 

Edited 7 April, 2020 by Lady Elanore

[@Lee]

1 hour ago, cheezemonkhai said:

it depends on how bad things get.  Any exit is a trade off on restriction vs deaths.

valid options could include:

If the peak goes low, then light lifting for a few weeks, then on/off and squash the peak.

I mentioned that that's what Germany were considering three weeks ago.

 

[cheezemonkhai]

All eyes on Wuhan now then...

 

Assuming the initial response isn’t repeated that is.

[@Lee]

Hard to disagree with this.......

 

[shyVRS245]

Taken China 3 months to get to zero deaths since lockdown so that is the likely timeframe until lockdown restrictions are lifted if the UK Government are using them as the guinea pig.

[brettikivi]

9 hours ago, gadgetman said:

Until we're post peak, announcing this would just give idiots the green light to start now 

Up to a point, yes. But the rest *need* to know when it's over.  They need to know it's not forever and they need to know just how restricted things will be or their expectations are "normal returns", which - simply put - ain't happenin'. 5 months is OTT; Wuhan just had trains leave this morning - 11 weeks after they shut down. 3 weeks is unrealistic, 5-6 is more so IMO. Here I think we're looking at another 3-4 weeks before it's really considered "under control", but a lot will depend on the results of the randomized population testing. That should state very nicely how well the population normally deals with it and / or how quickly we're likely to be able to get back towards more openness.

 

The Germans - RKI specifically - are developing an app for smart watches. It's not about quashing, it's about tracking and tracing and then testing rapidly. If you're close to a known carrier for any length of time - beep, time for a test.

None of those three - track, trace, test - are the current forte of the UK government. They need to get better, fast, or waves 2, 3 and 4 will happen.

Watch an EU-wide app appear for it, too, probably within the next weeks, for testing purposes. Already google data is being repurposed, mobile phone locations too... and it will be the equivalent of the mandatory health check app in Wuhan without it being mandatory, though as good as. Masks in public, too. Singapore and Hongkong appear to have opened up again a little too early and have had to back off - the track and trace is now in place for Singapore and I expect to see results on that. 

 

Edited 8 April, 2020 by brettikivi

[Ootohere]

Piers Morgan is sometimes right, and common sense needs used. 

He needs to stop being a smart ar53 and engage brain properly, use his ears and listen sometimes.

 

So 9 London bus drivers or that could be bus drivers and bus workers, because he does not listen. 14 Transport workers.

So sadly they might have caught Coronavirus at work.  We do not know, but lets assume that they did.  But then they are as likely to have caught it not at work.

There are bus and transport workers nationwide, so are bus drivers among the deaths around the UK & at a higher percentage than other non health workers catching it ?

Or are bus and transport workers catch caronavirus just as others do.  

On the way to work, on the way home, at home, just anytime and any place?

Lots are dying in London & around the UK and among those will be people that are employed in my types of employment.

http://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

 

 

Edited 8 April, 2020 by Roottootemblowinootsoot

[shyVRS245]

Returned to work after 3 days off and we have face masks provided. Only waited 6 weeks to get them provided.

[shyVRS245]

TUI announced no beach holidays until 14th May and no cruise holidays until at least June at the earliest.

[Guest BigJase88]

29 minutes ago, shyVRS245 said:

TUI announced no beach holidays until 14th May and no cruise holidays until at least June at the earliest.

Lets be real here will be no holidays until October hols if we are extremely lucky, TUI can say what ever date the want (unrealistic)

Edited 8 April, 2020 by BigJase88

[Cakemonster]

Friend of Mrs Cakemonster has pneumonia in both lungs and it was only the third test that confirmed coronavirus. 

It's a sneaky bugger! 

There can't be an exit strategy until we have reliable information. 

 

[Ootohere]

It really does seem that many in the UK do not seem to get it that this is just the start of it and not anyplace like the beginning of the end of it.

Just 2 weeks into the Lock Down.  Not that much of a lock down yet either.

[shyVRS245]

Tesco confirmed that 10% of its customers bought 30% of its stock in March. So it's official 10% of the UK population are idiotic panic buyers.

[Ootohere]

@shyVRS245  Did they give any figures on what that 10% buy usually of their stock?

 

They will lose some regulars now and later because they are taking the pith on pricing.

 

The CEO does publish some rubbish.  He said Multi Buys ended. 

 Yet the 3 tins tesco beans are on offer at 3 for 75 pence saving 15 pence, 

and they are back selling off the 4 for £1 multipack which 3 weeks ago they were clearing for 70 pence.

[Guest BigJase88]

7 minutes ago, shyVRS245 said:

Tesco confirmed that 10% of its customers bought 30% of its stock in March. So it's official 10% of the UK population are idiotic panic buyers.

I stocked up

 

went in full defcon 1 mode 😎

[gadgetman]

57 minutes ago, BigJase88 said:

Lets be real here will be no holidays until October hols if we are extremely lucky, TUI can say what ever date the want (unrealistic)

Exactly. Bin off any idea of a sun holiday this year. 

 

If you've booked, get the refund not a voucher as the voucher isn't ATOL or ABTA protected! 

[lol-lol]

China/Wuhan celebrates no new  C19 cases.....

 

 

[J.R.]

1 hour ago, Roottootemblowinootsoot said:

It really does seem that many in the UK do not seem to get it that this is just the start of it and not anyplace like the beginning of the end of it.

Just 2 weeks into the Lock Down.  Not that much of a lock down yet either.

 

Aint that the truth!

 

I do smile at the naivety of people who talk about "when things return to normal"

[shyVRS245]

1 hour ago, Roottootemblowinootsoot said:

@shyVRS245  Did they give any figures on what that 10% buy usually of their stock?

 

They will lose some regulars now and later because they are taking the pith on pricing.

 

The CEO does publish some rubbish.  He said Multi Buys ended. 

 Yet the 3 tins tesco beans are on offer at 3 for 75 pence saving 15 pence, 

and they are back selling off the 4 for £1 multipack which 3 weeks ago they were clearing for 70 pence.

The bare statistics suggest those 10% bought 3 times as much shopping as they normally would and probably chucked 50% away when it reached the sell by date.

[@Lee]

Tesco.
 

Quote

In its 2018/2019 financial year, Tesco's annual revenue amounted to almost 52 billion British pounds in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. This was an increase of approximately seven billion pounds compared to the prior financial year. It was the first increase of this size for almost a decade.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/490931/tesco-group-finance-revenue-united-kingdom-uk/

 

Quote

Tesco mounted a robust defence of its decision to pay a larger-than-expected full-year dividend as analysts warned that the overall impact of coronavirus could lead to profits falling in the current year. Dave Lewis, Tesco chief executive, acknowledged the sensitivity around paying dividends at a time when many companies have suspended them.

https://www.ft.com/content/4719c92c-ab17-4852-92e6-533c682611f4

[@Lee]

Quote

51 recovered coronavirus patients test positive again in South Korea

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200406006700320

[OldBoyScout]

2 hours ago, shyVRS245 said:

Tesco confirmed that 10% of its customers bought 30% of its stock in March. So it's official 10% of the UK population are idiotic panic buyers.

 

Applying the Pareto principle (80-20 rule). We might expect 20% of the customers to account for 80% of purchases and 80% of the customers to account for 20% of purchases. However, purchases is not the same thing as stock, and we don't know what proportion of the stock Tesco normally sells in March. So to me it seems unwise to draw any firm conclusions from this statistic. We are seeing a different pattern of shopping as people who would normally eat in cafes, restaurants, pubs etc and/or get takeaways have been forced to switch to supermarkets and local shops, a big switch from shopping in store to home deliveries, and stocking up to prepare for self isolation. There are good reasons why we are seeing shortages in the shops apart from panic buying.