EU referendum/Brexit discussion - Part 2

[S00perb]

vid on this page (still cuts off the intro that puts it into context)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-41401222/john-mcdonnell-we-have-to-scenario-plan-so-people-know-we-re-ready

Just scenario planning - what good governments do - have a plan in place if the worst happens (unlike Camaron planning for Brexit)

To make that the No.1 story on BBC news web page is pure bias

Edited 26 September, 2017 by S00perb

[Ootohere]

So no Northern Rock to sacrifice this time, steal the money of others see Virgin and the other banks OK, 

put Motability's funds into the hands of the big 5, allow the too big to fail to sell bad debts, give bonuses and Knighthoods and impose austerity

on hard working families, work shy, retired and savers or none savers and do not mention Panama Papers or British Virgin Islands or other tax havens.

 

Preparations may include being sure that your wealth is in Gold or Bit-Coins and comes nowhere near the British Isles.

Edited 26 September, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[Bignij]

1 hour ago, lol-lol said:

 

Has there been any to's and fro's?

 

I still have not heard good reasons to leave the EU.   

And I've no doubt someone will be along shortly to espouse the exact opposite. 

[@Lee]

4 hours ago, moley said:

Democracy is Democracy. Germany has a different election system to the UK. If the UK didn't use first past the post and used proportional representation we would have 12 UKIP mp's in parliament instead of none.

You sure it's four? https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-the-general-election-in-five-graphs
Either way the Lib Dems would have had even more and a potential of a Lab/ Lib/ Greens coalition would have ousted the tories. This would have also put pressure on Labour from the Lib Dems and Greens to reconsider their stance on Brexit.

PR is a fantastic system as it forces parties to work together.
I don't hear Merkel moaning about PR  

[@Lee]

Did you vote for UKIP?

 

Quote

Senior Alternative for Germany member to address Ukip conference

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/25/senior-member-of-germanys-far-right-afd-to-address-ukip-conference

I have ZERO respect for the AfD who are, for want of a better term, Nazis. If you associate with UKIP, you associate with NAZIS.
That means I have ZERO respect for you. Your words will have no meaning or credibility as far as I'm concerned.

[@Lee]

NLP and Brexit........... 

http://www.mattwingett.com/power-to-persuade-the-techniques-used-by-paul-mckenna-for-brexit/

 

[26DIPP]

On 9/21/2017 at 10:42, S00perb said:

If she does this, what are we arguing about? Just say - we are out because 37% of the voting population said we should leave, BUT we will pay up, keep to the rules and please can we keep trading? - That would keep me happy anyway.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41342580

Theresa May Brexit speech to be 'open and generous offer' to EU

It is thought that might include a guarantee that no EU country would lose out from changes to the EU's current budget as a result of the UK leaving.

 

We are one of the biggest contributors to the EU pot, so leaving dents the planned financial arrangements if we just go and take our cheque book with us.

If that is the promise that is roughly to the tune of £20bn, although it would be surprising if Theresa May named a figure herself - it's not her style and any actual numbers will be subject to far-off negotiations.

But in terms of the bill, that could just be the start of it. Plugging the hole in the current budget doesn't deal with what the EU sees as our long-term obligations - whether that's diplomats' pensions or our share of money that's been loaned to other countries.

Don't be so angry about the megre 37% majority. With First-Past-The-Post this can easily be transformed into a proper majority.

And yes, the windging majority will continue to pay a way out with your money.

[lol-lol]

6 hours ago, Bignij said:

And I've no doubt someone will be along shortly to espouse the exact opposite. 

 

The difference between the Leave and Remain is facts against emotion.

 

Even the prospect of BREXIT has caused the UK currency to fall considerably against key trading currencies the Euro and the US Dollar and therefore inflation has moved from being benign in Q1-Q2 of 2016 to a significant gap between in inflation to wages in Q3 of 2017.  The £350M a week ie £18B a year was show to be more like £10B a year ie £200M a week and that bought unfettered access for 44% of the UK's export trade and leaving the EU will result in customs procedures being re-introduced at a cost about £10B a year for the 200 million customs entries, in and out, that is required plus all the import duties, an average of 3% duties, plus VAT/GST cash flow loss plus the delays passing through customs which have their own costs which result in a net sum that way more wipes out the £200M a week contribution saving.

 

And with no track record of stopping immigration even when they had the power over non-EU immigrants is there any basis for faith in an ability to implement immigration controls.  Those that believe Remain was the right choice are still waiting for facts that Leaving has any substantial benefits.

 

All this said Remainers like me we look to implement the BREXIT policy and add hundred of millions, if not billions of pounds as a new revenue stream for the customs processing in and out of the UK and into and out for the UK goods to and from 27 Member States.  There are no very large UK owned International Logistics companies, they are all Australian, Chinese Danish, Dutch, French, German, Japanese or US and sadly not British. 

 

Edited 26 September, 2017 by lol-lol

[Ryeman]

Polls indicating the status quo combined with an acceptance of such and therefore an element of apathy makes the result tenuous at best.

Seriously dumb behaviour by Great(?) Britain.......unless near enough is good enough.

Its your Trump moment.

[lol-lol]

6 hours ago, Ryeman said:

Polls indicating the status quo combined with an acceptance of such and therefore an element of apathy makes the result tenuous at best.

Seriously dumb behaviour by Great(?) Britain.......unless near enough is good enough.

Its your Trump moment.

 

Now the UK has triggered Article 50 the EU sounds like it the Rest of EU is quite happy for the UK to crash out of the Single Market as it will bring about billions of Euros of new income on the customs duties and TVA (VAT) etc and they can blame the Brits who exercised their rights under EU Treaties.

 

Crash out on March 29th 2019, watch the British goods get delayed in the airports and ports, collect the mountain of taxes or delay the event by a couple of years, still get all the UK contribution and a big divorce bill and then collect the import taxes, win-win.

 

Germany will sell a few less cars and lower the types of models in to the UK market but they will still make considerable sales as Brits love their German auto boxes.  As to how sales of Jags and Range Rovers, those that are not moving to production in Slovakia anyways, and how sales of the high volume Nissan Qashqui will hold up against the closely related Renault Kadjur made in Spain, when the UK version pays a 10% import duty, will be interesting.  

 

   

Edited 27 September, 2017 by lol-lol

[skomaz]

4 hours ago, lol-lol said:

 

Crash out on March 29th 2019, watch the British goods get delayed in the airports and ports, collect the mountain of taxes or delay the event by a couple of years, still get all the UK contribution and a big divorce bill and then collect the import taxes, win-win.

 

   

 

It's not just one-sided though is it - Surely the same will also apply in reverse to the EU goods coming this way as well...

[S00perb]

38 minutes ago, skomaz said:

 

It's not just one-sided though is it - Surely the same will also apply in reverse to the EU goods coming this way as well...

Of course - which is why they are not happy about it

BUT

What is a bigger threat to the EU? Selling a bit less or the whole EU breaking up because other members see us taking the P1$$ and having our cake and eating it? WHat did they do over Greece - let them suffer rather then risk the Euro. Greece brought it on themselves - so will the UK (if it ever happens)

[Eddie-NL]

51 minutes ago, S00perb said:

Of course - which is why they are not happy about it

BUT

What is a bigger threat to the EU? Selling a bit less or the whole EU breaking up because other members see us taking the P1$$ and having our cake and eating it? WHat did they do over Greece - let them suffer rather then risk the Euro. Greece brought it on themselves - so will the UK (if it ever happens)

I find it interesting that you support the EU in their punishment of Greece. (Ordinary people not able to get medicines and treatment)

[S00perb]

5 minutes ago, Eddie-NL said:

I find it interesting that you support the EU in their punishment of Greece. (Ordinary people not able to get medicines and treatment)

I don't support that at all. Just stating that if the EU sees a threat, it will protect itself - it's what every organisation does (even if it's against it's stated aims). The Greek government was at fault afaik, if you don't set up a system to collect taxes, borrow too much money and keep repeating that cycle, eventually you go bust. Should the EU have helped more - yes, will it ever do anything it sees as a threat to its own existence - of course not.

[Ootohere]

The USA / UK special relationship is the answer to all the problems, Canada & the UK take the pith in the financial support of a Company in Northern Ireland and the USA imposes a 219% tariff because of it.

Good to see the Donald and Theresa could reach an understanding.   Make America Great Again.

[S00perb]

11 minutes ago, Headinawayoffski said:

The USA / UK special relationship is the answer to all the problems, Canada & the UK take the pith in the financial support of a Company in Northern Ireland and the USA imposes a 219% tariff because of it.

Good to see the Donald and Theresa could reach an understanding.   Make America Great Again.

Just reading that. 219% protectionist tax will force TM to do anything DT wants her to do. The smaller you are in the pond the more you are at risk. A sign of things to come

[Ootohere]

Sir Michael Fallon MP is on the case, he is the man that can and will talk about Boeing maybe losing orders.

 

He is the one obviously the one that signs the lease for Billions on the rented Nuclear Deterrent that the USof A makes us have.

[lol-lol]

3 hours ago, skomaz said:

 

It's not just one-sided though is it - Surely the same will also apply in reverse to the EU goods coming this way as well...

 

Yes the UK government can collect import duties on German cars etc and to sell anything like the same number of cars ie 2016, 2017 and 2018 then the Germans may need to eat in to their profit margin, which is no bad thing....

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2017/04/04/mercedes-will-retain-global-premium-sales-crown-in-2017-and-for-years-to-come/#797120885f05 

 

Mercedes also leads the profit race, with 3,291 euros ($3,935) per car, followed by BMW’s 3,250 euros ($3,465) and Audi 3,159 euros ($3,365). That translates into profit margins of 9.1%, 8.9% and 8.2%. 

 

I see a bit of a rush to buy non-UK sales before BREXIT which will give the market a bit of a lift and people who buy pre-BREXIT will see less depreciation as the gap between new and nearly new is pulled closer.

 

[S00perb]

2 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

Yes the UK government can collect import duties on German cars etc and to sell anything like the same number of cars ie 2016, 2017 and 2018 then the Germans may need to eat in to their profit margin, which is no bad thing....

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2017/04/04/mercedes-will-retain-global-premium-sales-crown-in-2017-and-for-years-to-come/#797120885f05 

 

Mercedes also leads the profit race, with 3,291 euros ($3,935) per car, followed by BMW’s 3,250 euros ($3,465) and Audi 3,159 euros ($3,365). That translates into profit margins of 9.1%, 8.9% and 8.2%. 

 

I see a bit of a rush to buy non-UK sales before BREXIT which will give the market a bit of a lift and people who buy pre-BREXIT will see less depreciation as the gap between new and nearly new is pulled closer.

 

Or - they cars just cost us more.

I see the pre-brexit rush as part of the crazy lease not buy deals - never understand renting a car AND being responsible for its upkeep - as me ol' gran would say "if you want something, save up!"

[lol-lol]

1 hour ago, S00perb said:

Or - they cars just cost us more.

I see the pre-brexit rush as part of the crazy lease not buy deals - never understand renting a car AND being responsible for its upkeep - as me ol' gran would say "if you want something, save up!"

 

They already cost more since BREXIT but they will get another spike higher with introduction of customs procedures etc......

 

http://www.which.co.uk/news/2017/09/brexits-biggest-price-rises/

 

Cars cost more. The starting price of some new car models has risen by over 20% since the decision to leave the EU. Using figures from the car-price database PHA Autodata, we analysed the prices that people are paying for Britain’s top 10 bestselling new cars and compared starting prices during summer 2016 with those of a year later (see the table below). In the year to July 2017 the starting prices for the Ford Fiesta and Focus – the first and third bestselling cars last year – rose by 17.8% and 14.8% respectively, to £12,427 and £15,813. We saw similarly large rises in the lowest prices for new Vauxhall Corsas and Nissan Qashqais. These increased by 21.8% and 12.6% to £11,698 and £19,295 respectively. We asked car manufacturers to explain their price rises since the Brexit vote. Ford said: ‘Our UK vehicle sales in sterling have to cover majority production costs in euros. Towards the end of last year we put a value on the impact of weaker sterling on European operations. A combination of ‘a softer industry and exchange’ caused $200m (£153m) of lost revenue in 2016, and that this continued into 2017.’ Vauxhall told us: ‘There have been several price increases since the referendum when the pound plummeted – price lifts have varied by model depending on country of origin.’ Nissan said: ‘The price you have for Qashqai is the new model, just launched. However, the Qashqai price increase is slightly below the category increase over the last 12 months, even with the transition to new Qashqai.’ Our expert, car-price specialist Pat Hoy, said the main trend he’d observed was price increases resulting from dealers and manufacturers ‘weaning car buyers off unsustainable levels of cash discounts’ seen in recent years. He added ‘..they may also be part of a wider strategy to get the market set right ahead of actual Brexit in 2019.’ Visit our cars section for the latest reviews.

 

2016 v 2017 average starting prices for the top 10 new car models in the UK

 

                                     Price from August 2016      Price from July 2017              % change

1. Ford Fiesta*                      £10,553                                  £12,427                                       17.8%

2. Vauxhall Corsa                  £9,602                                     £11,698                                      21.8%

3. Ford Focus                       £13,774                                    £15,813                                      14.8%

4. Volkswagen Golf              £16,180                                  £16,394                                         1.3%

5. Nissan Qashqai                £17,140                                  £19,295                                       12.6%

6. Vauxhall Astra GTC          £19,010                                 £20,082                                          5.6%

7. Volkswagen Polo GTI      £17,648                                  £18,190                                          3.1%

8. Mini                                   £13,426                                  £13,883                                           3.4%

9. Mercedes-Benz C-Class  £25,869                                £26,523                                            2.5%

10. Audi A3                          £18,029                                £18,688                                              3.7%

 

 

* Fiesta price is from September 2016 to reflect change of specification. Source: PHA Autodata/SMMT
Read more: http://www.which.co.uk/news/2017/09/brexits-biggest-price-rises/ - Which?

 

 

[skomaz]

51 minutes ago, lol-lol said:

 

...’ Our expert, car-price specialist Pat Hoy, said the main trend he’d observed was price increases resulting from dealers and manufacturers ‘weaning car buyers off unsustainable levels of cash discounts’ seen in recent years.

 

 

 

 

Quite a few 'new' models or 'facelifts' in there but also note the other point highlighted...   as well as exchange rate fluctuations

[@Lee]

5 hours ago, Headinawayoffski said:

Sir Michael Fallon MP is on the case, he is the man that can and will talk about Boeing maybe losing orders.

 

He is the one obviously the one that signs the lease for Billions on the rented Nuclear Deterrent that the USof A makes us have.

Fallon's an idiot.
Has he forgotten who owns the software for Chinooks, to name just one?
British (English) false sense of superiority strikes again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/bombardier-michael-fallon-boeing-donald-trump-commerce-tariff-defence-secretary-uk-government-a7969676.html

[Ootohere]

Fallon is the safe hands / foot & mouth that are relied on to try and speak calmly to the people who might actually think is knows jack 5h!t about anything and everything.  Another of those more sober older gentleman politicians that get knighted for services rendered and falsehoods covered up, as long as he is actually sober.

Edited 27 September, 2017 by Headinawayoffski

[@Lee]

Made me chuckle..........

 

[Ryeman]

Add the sniff of a trade war too -

http://m.atwonline.com/regulation/delta-faces-220-duty-cseries-after-us-commerce-subsidy-ruling?NL=ATW-04&Issue=ATW-04_20170927_ATW-04_198&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_1_b&utm_rid=CPEN1000000426856&utm_campaign=11906&utm_medium=email&elq2=555b6583e4eb4d238f97954a300e9f96